In a recent Supply Chain Brain feature, economists unpack new research that challenges some common assumptions. Drawing on an NBER study, the article explains why tariffs may boost certain manufacturing jobs over the long term — but only after significant short-term job losses, economic contraction, and supply-chain disruption. The analysis also shows how retaliation from trading partners could erase potential gains altogether.The article further examines the economic consequences of large-scale deportations, citing research that suggests aggressive enforcement could reduce employment not just among immigrants, but also among U.S.-born workers — especially in industries like agriculture, construction, hospitality, and childcare. Together, these findings highlight the complex, often unintended ripple effects of trade and immigration policy on supply chains, labor markets, and overall economic productivity.
Read the full analysis from Supply Chain Brain to explore what the research really says — and what it means for the future of U.S. manufacturing and supply chains.
